Farewell Brexit

 

Brexit was pronounced Terminal at 8.56 am on Thursday 15 November 2018 when the minister supposed to have negotiated the deal, one Dominic Raab, made it clear that he hadn’t . Unsurprisingly that leaves him somewhat less than enthusiastic about supporting it.

Sure, other players took their opportunity to kick the deal when it was down; another Cabinet minister resigned. Another junior minister grabbed her coat. The opposition declared their opposition.  The DUP had already declared theirs. But the coup de grace was delivered by Dominic.

There will now be a referendum (after about 400 MPs from all sides have wasted the next few weeks trying to resist one) and it will have to address two questions.

1 In or out   2, if out, Deal or No Deal

And the voters must be incentivised to answer both questions, or else we could find ourselves in the even more ludicrous position than we’re in now. Imagine if Question 1 gets the same result as the 2016 referendum -52:48 for getting out; but only the 52% vote on question 2, with a similar result, say, 52% for No Deal and 48% for Deal. That would mean that we’d bail out of the EU on the basis of the wishes of about 27% of the voters. That’s as close to a recipe for Trump level political chaos as I’ve ever seen.

By insisting that we’ll only count those ballots on which both questions are answered, we can at least achieve a majority vote.  In case the blog title didn’t make it obvious, I’m fairly confident that the result of the second referendum will be a policy reversal, with a bigger percentage and bigger absolute vote in favour of staying in after all.  It was a good laugh while it lasted, but we’ve sobered up now.

But this whole debacle – and the Trump Fiasco – could have been designed to illustrate the palpable insanity that is bound to ensue when we try to make historically important social decisions on the basis of simple majorities. When the stakes are this high and society is split down the middle, you have the makings of Civil War.

That is why I wrote about the Democratic Cannibals in the first place.

 

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